CIR’s investigation focuses on the linkages between climate change and conflict dynamics in the centre of the Liptako-Gourma region, the border area between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Using satellite imagery analysis, open-source conflict data, precipitation data and fire analysis, the investigation explores the environmental impact of climate variability, challenging preconceived notions of environmental degradation in the Sahel, and informing our understanding of the relationship between climate variability and violence, displacement and resource competition.
Key findings include the following:
- CIR data shows that from 2001 to 2020 the productive capacity of the vast majority of land studied either increased or remained stable, with little to no signs of desertification. Rainfall became more significant but also more irregular, leading to floods. Fire data had remained stable since the early 2000s with a strong increase in 2020-2023. Some of these positive dynamics are due to the environment recovering from unusually strong drought periods in previous decades.
- Decreased land productivity and conflict appear to be linked in the region. The locations affected by land degradation (9.1% of total area), especially in the Sahel and Tillabéri regions, are disproportionately affected by violent incidents (three times more than average). The vast majority of these incidents have involved violent extremist organisations (VEOs) and state armed forces.
- In all likelihood, the significant increase in fires (+180%) from 2020-2023 is an effect of heightened violence in the region rather than a direct effect of climate change.
- Factors other than climate change also lead to conflicts through increased competition for limited resources. These include significant population growth, additional pastoral pressure related to the rise in meat demand, and the recent expansion of gold mining activities.
- Significant numbers of displacements across the area of focus are linked to climate variability and related environmental events such as increased floods. They have decimated livelihoods, created food and water insecurity, and exacerbated conflict dynamics surrounding key resources, such as the targeting of water sources by VEO groups.
- Women and girls are extremely reliant on natural resources given their involvement in agro-pastoral livelihoods and household responsibilities. This, paired with their limited alternative opportunities and coping mechanisms, means that women and girls are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change.