Why is Sagaing the epicentre of Myanmar's conflict?

Violence has gripped Myanmar since the 2021 coup, compounding decades of unrest in conflict and human rights abuses that have occurred largely out of the global “spotlight”. During this period, CIR’s Myanmar Witness project has been collecting and analysing data which shows cases of extreme violence and destruction throughout the country.

According to Myanmar Witness’ findings, Myanmar’s central-northwestern Sagaing region is most heavily affected by the internal conflict, repeatedly showing the highest levels of violence in the entire country. This makes Sagaing the so-called “epicentre” of Myanmar’s conflict and a region facing an urgent humanitarian crisis. We explain:

Forces contend for Sagaing’s strategic location and infrastructure

Due to its geographical and economic attributes, the Sagaing region is a strategically valuable area for the fighting factions to control. This is because Sagaing is positioned between the Irrawaddy and Chindwin rivers, two vital routes for transporting goods, people, and military supplies in Myanmar’s dry zone. It is also located  close to important trade routes to nearby states and borders. 

As a result, there has been a high level of violence in the Sagaing region since the 2021 coup. One way Myanmar Witness has monitored this is by collecting cases where buildings and villages have been destroyed by fire in possible human rights incidents. Myanmar Witness has verified a disproportionate number of fire events taking place in Sagaing, which could be linked to military operations in the area. 

Fire events have severe impacts on local infrastructure and livelihoods, such as the cluster village fires in the Myaung township (located in southern Sagaing on the Irrawaddy) between 7-13 November 2022. A military column reportedly fired heavy weapons, burned, and raided eight villages in seven days, following claims of an attempted food raid off of a military vessel on the Chindwin River by resistance fighters near Kyauk Tan village on 6 November 2022. Cases like these have been interpreted as tactics used by the Myanmar military to instil fear and suppress resistance movements, with civilians caught in the middle.

Resistance stronghold means military crackdowns

Prior to the February 2021 coup, the Sagaing region was generally considered a peaceful agricultural area inhabited predominantly by Bamar Buddhists, as well as a significant number of Chin (an ethnic group native to the Chin state) and other historically marginalised groups. Following the coup, local youths from these minority groups formed People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and local militias to oppose the Myanmar Military. A lack of military presence, particularly in the south, allowed resistance groups to grow and southern Sagaing became a concentrated area of anti-junta resistance. 

In response, the Myanmar military has carried out brutal and targeted offensives in southern Sagaing which have led to widespread destruction and civilian suffering, through tactics such as airstrikes. Of its data collected on airstrike claims between July to December 2022, Myanmar Witness found that 43% originated from the Sagaing region. 

The airstrike on a Tabayin township school and monastery in Let Yet Kone village on 16 September 2022 was one of the most widely reported airstrike cases. Over an hour-long helicopter bombardment, 11-14 people were reportedly killed, including at least six children. The airstrike was allegedly due to the State Administration Council (SAC) receiving reports about resistance forces using the school.

The Tabayin school airstrike is part of a wider trend of attacks on education facilities that Myanmar Witness has observed, with 174 distinct incidents of violence involving schools from 1 February 2021 to 30 April 2024. Of all the datasets in the school investigation, Sagaing reports the highest number of incidents involving damaged schools compared to any other regions in Myanmar. Though a number of these incidents may be linked to the military use of school buildings, it has been reported that the SAC often justifies attacks on protected sites by alleging connections to pro-democracy/anti-SAC movements. 

Similarly, of the 16 specific case studies of attacks on medical facilities Myanmar Witness investigated from February to April 2023 (which varied from ground troop raids and arson to airstrikes), 50% originated from the Sagaing region. It is again unclear whether these locations were targeted because resistance forces were using these locations for cover. However, this finding is significant in a country with 13 different regions, potentially suggesting that these medical facility locations may be being specifically targeted. 

The Myanmar military and MAF’s attacks on educational and medical sites appear to show a disregard for the facilities essential for the long-term development and community health of the region.   

Military launches ‘fear campaigns’ to suppress resistance forces

Fear campaigns are some of the most severe incidents in the Sagaing region. These are alleged operations repeated in multiple villages where locals are reportedly subjected to harassment and forms of violence, such as torture, killing, dismemberment, beheading, or the burning of bodies. 

Myanmar Witness’ investigation into the burning of bodies uncovered 146 such events, involving 444 claimed victims between March 2022 and September 2023. Of these claims, 77% were located in the Sagaing region. While the exact motivations behind these actions are unclear, various observers suggest that the military’s campaigns seem to aim to instil fear in local populations to suppress the pro-democracy resistance movement in the Sagaing region. 

Open land and poor living conditions leave people particularly vulnerable

Not only do local groups in the Sagaing region appear to be particularly targeted by the military, but Myanmar Witness has observed that the region’s geography may pose additional challenges. Unlike the dense rainforests in northern Sagaing or in neighbouring states like Kachin and Shan, much of southern Sagaing features more open landscapes, which are more difficult to be concealed and move freely in. Resistance forces in southern Sagaing also do not have foreign borders across which they can attempt to retreat like resistance groups along Myanmar’s borders, or those in northern Sagaing near India, do.

Events since the 2021 coup have caused the significant destruction of homes and infrastructure and so high levels of displacement in the Sagaing region. Consequently, Sagaing has the highest concentration of IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) in Myanmar. IDPs live mostly in camps , often with makeshift, unsafe infrastructure, limited access to basic necessities, and food scarcity. Though it is difficult to verify reports of IDPs being attacked due to a lack of satellite imagery, images and videos of the camps show that the poor living conditions in the camps leave their inhabitants particularly exposed to the impacts of the ongoing conflict.

The Sagaing region’s strategic importance and proximity to key resistance movements has contributed to it becoming one of the most contested regions in Myanmar’s conflict. Its open geography and high number of IDPs living in camps have then left Sagaing’s inhabitants yet more vulnerable to the impacts of violence.  Sagaing’s vulnerability is underscored by Myanmar Witness’s data findings; these show a consistent and often extreme level of violence in the region, which has led to its current grave humanitarian situation.

*For more detailed findings and context about the data and methodology, the full report is available to read here.