Four years on from Myanmar coup, open source monitoring remains critical

On 1 February 2021, the military launched a coup d’état in Myanmar. Within hours, General Min Aung Hlaing seized power and arrested elected leaders, overthrowing Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government.

That morning, a fitness instructor filmed her usual exercise routine in the country’s capital Nay Pyi Daw, accidentally capturing a convoy of military trucks emerging behind her. The viral footage soon became a symbol of how a decade of democratic progress was overturned in a single day. 

What began as a relatively peaceful protest movement had turned violent by late February 2021 – as the military intensified its efforts to quell dissent. 

Since then, over 28,400 political prisoners have been arrested, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP). Over 6,000 have reportedly been killed. 

But the coup also sparked new efforts to document what is happening in Myanmar. Videos shared and uploaded to social media have provided a unique lens into the civil war, while open source investigations have sought to expose those responsible for the violence.

Myanmar Witness has been monitoring the situation in the country for the past four years, collecting, archiving and verifying information relating to potential human rights abuses. 

Data is gathered from open sources like media outlets and social media channels and is heavily reliant on citizens on the ground filming incidents and posting these online. Myanmar Witness also has an “upload evidence” function on the CIR website, where images and videos can be uploaded in confidence, if it is safe to do so. 

Violence, fires and damage documented

All of this open source data – which includes images, videos, and sometimes written claims – is held in the Myanmar Witness database. 

The database currently holds over 15,000 entries and represents a wide range of incidents, from explosions and fires to civilian casualties and arrests. Each entry tells a story –  a human life lost, a home damaged, or a village burnt.  

Where possible, CIR attempts to verify data through open source techniques including cross-referencing, geolocation and chronolocation. Claims are corroborated with reliable media reports or through analysis of satellite imagery.  

The database only includes what analysts have been able to document – it does not represent every single incident happening on the ground. 

It is impossible to know how many incidents are not captured on camera or take place without a witness watching on. Our capacity, access to footage, and the availability of evidence all affect what makes it into the database.

Consistently violent

Press freedom is extremely limited in Myanmar, and the protracted nature of the war – combined with the emergence of other major conflicts elsewhere – means international coverage of the conflict has dwindled.

However, data collected by Myanmar Witness, as well as other organisations, reveals that the conflict has been consistently violent, and shows no signs of slowing. 

Tactics such as burning homes, indiscriminate airstrikes and attacks against critical civilian infrastructure were used very early in the conflict and continue to be used to this day. Even the most heinous atrocities, such as burning people alive and public beheading are not out of the ordinary. 

As of December 2024, ACLED’s Conflict Index ranks Myanmar as the second most dangerous and violent place in the world, categorised as “extreme” and “consistently concerning”. 

The impact on civilians has been huge – UNHCR estimates that a total of 3,527,600 are internally displaced in Myanmar (figure last updated 27 January 2025). Most internally displaced persons (IDPs) are located in the Sagaing region, often considered the epicentre of the conflict. 

However, the consistent nature of the conflict not only means that there is a horrendous human cost, but that international audiences are prone to conflict fatigue. 

As the conflict enters its fifth year, open source analysis remains a critical tool for ensuring the world knows what’s happening in Myanmar – as well as a powerful mechanism to hold actors accountable. 

For further reading, explore Myanmar Witness’ analysis, maps and guides.