Russia escalates drone-dropped munitions use in Kherson, Ukraine

Executive Summary

The Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) has identified a significant escalation in the use of drone-dropped ordnance by Russian forces to target possible civilians, possible civilian vehicles, and civilian infrastructure in Kherson City and its neighbouring suburb, Antonivka. Between July and 21 October 2024, CIR verified 88 such incidents and has established the locations of anti-personnel mines likely dropped by Russian drone operators.

CIR also identified posts from pro-Russian Telegram channels declaring Kherson and Antonivka a “red zone”; these channels state that any vehicle or critical civilian infrastructure within this zone is a legitimate military target. Some of these channels also claim to be affiliated with Russian military units. CIR was unable to conclusively confirm whether this is the case. All 88 incidents verified by CIR took place within this “red zone” and follow a discernible pattern of targeting vehicles and individuals along key roads through Kherson and Antonivka.

This report provides detailed analysis of these events and assesses the possibility that this recent surge in incidents involving drone-dropped ordnance may include the deliberate targeting of civilians by Russian forces.

Introduction

Since Russia’s November 2022 retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River, Kherson City and towns along the river’s right bank have been shelled almost daily by Russian forces. CIR previously noted a trend, starting in September 2023, of Russian forces appearing to target civilians, civilian vehicles, and civilian infrastructure in Beryslav using drone-dropped explosive ordnance.

Since July 2024, CIR has observed an acute increase in the use of similar methods by Russian forces in Kherson City and its neighbouring suburb, Antonivka. The frequency of these incidents increased throughout August and September 2024. Currently, they take place almost daily, to the point where they have been described across social media and in mainstream international news reports as a “human safari”.

Pro-Russian Telegram channels known to share drone footage of drone-dropped explosive ordnance declared the immediate area on the right bank of the Dnipro River, including Kherson and Antonivka, a “red zone”. These channels appear to state that any vehicle or critical civilian infrastructure found in this “red zone” represents a legitimate military target, putting any civilian who finds themselves in the “red zone” at risk of being targeted by drone-dropped ordnance. This may indicate a violation of Article 51 of the Geneva Convention and could constitute war crimes. CIR assesses that Russian units on the right bank of the Dnipro River using civilian targets for live training exercises is a realistic possibility.

Most of the footage of these incidents was shared by a single pro-Russian Telegram channel. CIR found a notable level of interaction between this channel and another channel. Between these two accounts, CIR found funding and aid requests for several Russian military units, including the 291st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (likely the 205th Brigade). CIR also found another Telegram channel that claims to belong to the 18th Combined Arms Army, although this has not been independently verified. Possibly a drone unit within the 18th Combined Arms Army, the HABR team, observed by CIR in user-generated content (UGC) to be operating in Kherson City, has similarly designated Kherson City and its suburbs a
“red zone”.

Between July and 21 October 2024, CIR verified 88 incidents of Russian forces dropping explosive munitions from drones, targeting possible civilian vehicles, possible civilians, and civilian infrastructure. Footage of drone-dropped ordnance is shared almost daily; this investigation relies on the relatively limited proportion of available footage so far verified by CIR and is therefore not exhaustive. CIR continues to work on both verifying outstanding footage and collecting new footage as it becomes available.