Why we’re still monitoring the situation in Gaza

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza and a hostage release deal. It is the most significant breakthrough in 15 months of war – with the parties struggling to come to an agreement until now. We explain the key terms of the deal and why open source monitoring of the situation remains critical.

CIR has been documenting and verifying incidents across the Occupied Palestinian Territories (the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Jerusalem), Lebanon and Israel since the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attacks, which led to Israel launching a military offensive in Gaza and an escalation of the conflict in Lebanon.  

Over the past 15 months, CIR has verified over 1,300 incidents, including damage to homes and vital infrastructure and the obstruction of aid. These incidents are available to the public in our open source Israel-Gaza Conflict Map. 

Incidents presented in the map have been visually verified using videos and photos uploaded from the ground – as well as satellite imagery, drone, bodycam or CCTV footage – to identify the date and location of an incident. Each piece of data has been analysed for authenticity by CIR investigators, with the overall aim of broadening public access to a verified, longitudinal dataset on the conflict. 

Going forward, open source methods will not only be crucial for investigating any claimed potential ceasefire breaches, but also for debunking inaccurate reports. Our Israel-Gaza Conflict Map enables you to search through logged and verified incidents and filter them by category, date, casualties and location zone.

What are the ceasefire terms?

Brokered by the US, Egypt and Qatar, the multi-stage ceasefire deal, approved by Israel’s cabinet on 17 January 2025, could halt the 15-month war in Gaza and ensure the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas militants, who will be exchanged for an estimated total of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. 

If successful, it will also see the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, with displaced Palestinians – many of whom have been living in camps – able to return to their homes. This includes the hundreds of thousands estimated to have been displaced from the north to the south of the strip during the war. 

The deal is split into three stages, beginning with an initial six-week ceasefire starting on 19 January 2025, which will see female, elderly and wounded hostages released first. 

Stage two plans for a return to “sustainable calm“, and will see the release of the remaining living hostages – including male civilians and soldiers – and more Palestinian prisoners. Negotiations for this stage of the agreement are due to begin no later than the 16th day of the ceasefire. 

The third and final stage of the agreement will see the return of any remaining hostages’ bodies. It will also focus on the reconstruction of Gaza, which could take years given the scale of destruction, and the number of homes, critical infrastructure and agricultural land damaged. 

CIR investigators and analysts will be monitoring social media channels, satellite imagery and news sites for any signs of breaches as the ceasefire comes into effect, and in the weeks or months that follow.

As well as the hostage and prisoner exchanges and an agreement to halt the fighting,  other key terms of the deal, set to be implemented at various stages of the ceasefire, include: 

• The Israeli military will start to redeploy eastward out of populated areas of Gaza and into a buffer zone along Gaza’s border with Israel. This is planned to take place during the initial six-week period.
• Israeli troops will also be required to leave the Netzarim corridor, which separates the north of the Gaza Strip from the south, and to leave Gaza’s border with Egypt within 50 days. 
• A surge in humanitarian aid is also expected in the first phase of the agreement. The deal requires Israel to allow 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid to enter Gaza each day, half of which will be allocated to the north. 
• The Rafah border crossing – which connects Gaza to Egypt – is expected to be reopened. The crossing is a key link connecting the strip to the outside world but was seized by Israel in May 2024.

Previous ceasefire breaches

This is not the first ceasefire in the last 15 months. A previous Israel-Hamas ceasefire resulted in a seven-day pause in fighting, ending on 1 December 2023. 

At the time, Israel accused Hamas of violating the terms of the agreement, while Hamas blamed Israel for the resumption of fighting, saying it refused “to accept all offers to release other hostages”. Hamas eventually said in late December 2023 that it would not release any more hostages until Israel agreed to end the war. 

Israel and Hamas’ fragile relations have been punctuated by broken ceasefires over the years. In 2014 alone, there were nine truces in a conflict that lasted 51 days. 

In the past, ceasefires have often succeeded in temporarily halting violence but rarely evolved into long-term peace accords. 

For these reasons, open source investigators will be closely monitoring what happens next. 

Aid obstruction

There will be a surge in humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza during the first stage of the ceasefire – with hundreds of lorries set to enter the territory each day to deliver food, medicine and fuel. 

According to AP, the draft deal specifies that equipment will be allowed into Gaza to build shelters for tens of thousands of Palestinians whose homes were destroyed and to rebuild critical infrastructure including electricity, sewage, communications and road systems.

The UN says that more than 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza are experiencing “extremely critical” levels of hunger, with crop fields and livelihoods damaged during the war. 

Over the last 15 months CIR has been monitoring potential aid obstruction and damage to humanitarian facilities. Incidents have included the blocking of ambulances or aid trucks, an explosion occurring near a location where aid is being distributed, shots being fired towards an ambulance and its driver, and damage to aid facilities. 

The UN Relief Chief has called for both parties to “adhere fully” to international humanitarian law – including “allowing aid workers safe, unfettered access to people in need whoever and wherever they are” and “removing all obstacles to the entry of essential aid”.

We will continue to monitor incidents in the coming weeks and months. You can access previous incidents on the map by filtering the legend to show “Obstruction of aid” incidents and/or “Damage to humanitarian and aid facilities”.

Accountability efforts

Though accountability and justice efforts relating to the Israel-Gaza war have been ongoing since 7 October 2023, the ceasefire has led to renewed calls for accountability for the events of the past 15 months. 

The Israel-Gaza conflict map is particularly useful here as it provides a longitudinal dataset spanning this period. All incidents included in the map have been verified stringently using multiple pieces of content for corroboration. 

Open source investigative techniques can also be used to support justice and accountability efforts by indicating instances where international humanitarian law appears to have been violated. For example, incident IPIN2372 on the map,  dated 19 December 2024, references CCTV footage showing a woman being shot by armed individuals on Market Street in Balata refugee camp in the West Bank, and could indicate a violation of international humanitarian law rule 65.

CIR adheres to the Berkeley Protocol on Digital Open Source Investigations and guidelines issued by Eurojust, both of which provide international standards for conducting digital investigations, and guidance for gathering, analysing and preserving information in a “professional, legal and ethical manner”.

Documenting the reconstruction

The final stage of the agreement is likely to focus on a reconstruction plan for Gaza, carried out under international supervision, which could take years given the scale of damage, and the number of homes and key infrastructure damaged. While the ceasefire intends to allow residents of Gaza to return home, many will be left without homes or access to healthcare and other essential facilities.

While we are unable to map and verify every single damage incident from the past 15 months, the Israel-Gaza Conflict Map provides a comprehensive overview of damage incidents – many of which are concentrated in the Gaza Strip. Open source techniques have been essential for highlighting the scale of the damage up to now, but they will also be critical for continued monitoring of the reconstruction process. 

Explore the Israel-Gaza Conflict Map here. It should be noted that some footage and content have been excluded from the map for privacy reasons.

Click here to learn more about the methodology behind it.