In partnership with CIR, Croatian researchers have uncovered indications of a pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign utilising a large bot network ahead of the presidential run-off in Croatia.
Disinformation campaign uncovered by researchers ahead of Croatian presidential run-off
2 min read
CIR
Summary
This report was produced by independent Croatian researchers, as part of our Resilience Network initiative. CIR has verified their findings.
Image: grebeshkovmaxim via Getty Images
Pro-Russian, anti-EU, and anti-NATO bot networks were found to consistently praise President Zoran Milanovic and amplify pro-Milanovic content while disseminating anti-EU and anti-NATO messaging.
CIR worked with the researchers to verify their findings of inauthentic behaviour linked to bot and bot-like accounts, which included profiles featuring pro-Russian government imagery and hashtags, slogans promoting pro-Russian, anti-Europe, and anti-NATO content, AI-generated profile pictures and high-frequency and regular posting patterns. The researchers, part of CIR’s Resilience Network, have requested to remain anonymous to protect their security. CIR investigators verified their findings.
Incumbent president Zoran Milanovic won 49.1% of the vote share in the first round of Croatia’s presidential election in December, falling just short of a majority, results from the State Electoral Commission (DIP) showed. Dragan Primorac – the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) candidate – won 19.35% support. The second round of voting will take place on 12 January.
The accounts posting pro-Milanovic content were diverse, posting in English, French, Spanish, Italian, Serbian and Croatian. They appeared to mobilise in two waves: following Milanovic’s first-place finish in the first round of voting and after his statements opposing potential Croatian involvement in the Ukraine War.
An outspoken critic of Western military support for Ukraine, Milanovic has previously said Croatia should not take sides and should stay away from global disputes, despite being a member of both NATO and the EU.
Pro-Russian accounts with bot-like attributes promote Milanovic in multiple languages
In several instances, Russian bot accounts would amplify posts praising Milanovic or attacking his opponent Primorac. Some of these bot accounts were overtly pro-Russian, while others used AI-generated profile pictures and regularly pushed pro-Russian content, researchers found.
The researchers found that the Facebook page associated with the Social Democratic Party and Milanovic demonstrated significant bot activity, particularly in comments and shares. One seemingly inauthentic Facebook account identified by researchers was found to post over 100 times a day and mainly shared images attacking Primorac or supporting Milanovic.
A post by pro-Russian troll account ‘Zlatti_71’ posted in support of Milanovic, then promoted by four bot or bot-like accounts that disseminate Russian propaganda
Researchers also analysed news media relating to the presidential runoff and found that several Kremlin propaganda outlets and Kremlin-aligned media outlets in other countries took a favourable stance toward Milanovic.
RT Balkans, the regional arm of the Russian state-controlled network RT, has published 14 articles on Milanovic since December 2024. Of these, 10 conveyed a favourable or neutral-to-favourable tone toward the incumbent.
The English website of Al Mayadeen, widely recognised as a Hezbollah-affiliated platform, published two articles falsely asserting that Milanovic had won the first round of elections which were further amplified by bot accounts.
Croatian and regional fringe outlets previously flagged for peddling disinformation about the war in Ukraine have also promoted Milanovic, including Epoha, Projekt Velebit, and Maxportal.hr, researchers found.